Dry conditions in many areas of the Prairies have had an impact on crop development.

Bruce Burnett, the Director of Markets and Weather with Glacier Farm Media, just finished his 2018 Western Canadian Crop Tour which took him over 4700 kilometers.

He says crop yield potential has gone down significantly in areas suffering from poor subsoil moisture and the recent heat.

“The height of the crop does determine to some extent what the yield potential can be. The other concern that I have is that we might see lack of fill on some of these smaller heads as well because it’s again very dry out in a lot of areas and we’ve only had spotty rains. Any continued heat here is not going to do anything for the crop.”

Burnett is expecting the yield potential to be below normal in areas around Central and Southern Saskatchewan, while he says crops look better in the Northern areas where it hasn’t been as hot.

“I think for Wheat, Canola and for the other crops we’re going to see a drop in yields. Durum yields we’re going to see below last year’s levels, which we’re fairly low to begin with. We see the yields being below 35 bushels an acre this year as an average for Western Canada. “

So, what does that mean for the markets?

Market Analyst Mike Jubinville with Pro Farmer Canada/Glacier Farm Media says when it comes to Canola; based on Stats Can figures we should see a 21 million tonne crop. So, we have a good supply of canola to sell, but the demand element in this market is also strong.

Overall, he still expects to see a long-term trending sideways marketplace.

“Where the top end of the market is once we get into it, $11.50-$12 a bushel seems to be where it always stalls out every time we test it over the span of those number of years. The bottom end of the market, when things are looking the most bearish, lower $10 a bushel and we oscillate every one, two, three, four months one way and one, two, three, four months heading the other way. That’s kind of the environment we’re in right now.”

Jubinville told producers at the Growing the Future 2018 - Aberhart Ag Solutions Stage that it's important to watch what’s happening on the world's stage.

He notes trade tensions are a major factor impacting the agricultural commodity markets right now.

The real focal point right now is between the U-S and China; with China putting a 25% retaliatory tariff against U-S Soybeans.

He says, as a result, China has started buying more from other countries like Argentina and Brazil.

“That kind of uncertainty that is thrown into the marketplace has certainly affected the Soybean market and in concert, you know the investment money, the speculative money and such that play in these commodity markets. They’ve pulled their long positions out of soybeans and it’s had a negative effect on other commodities as well that are caught up in the Chinese/U-S battle here. They're caught up in the emotion of fear that has gripped the ag markets and driven prices down, certainly from their highs in May.”

He notes China is also looking at alternatives to satisfy their needs on oilseeds and protein supplements for food rations and Canadian Canola, Peas and such are factoring into that mix.

This year’s growing conditions in parts of the Prairies have been hampered in many areas by hot, dry conditions that will likely result in a lower than expected yield potential.

Jubenville says when it comes to Canola; based on Stats Can figures we should see a 21 million tonne crop. So we have a good supply of canola to sell, but the demand element in this market is also strong.

Overall, he still expects to see a long-term trending sideways marketplace.

“Where the top end of the market is once we get into it, $11.50-$12 a bushel seems to be where it always stalls out every time we test it over the span of those number of years. The bottom end of the market, when things are looking the most bearish, lower $10 a bushel and we oscillate every one, two, three, four months one way and one, two, three, four months heading the other way. That’s kind of the environment we’re in right now.”

Bruce Burnett and Mike Jubinville with Glacier Farm Media presented their Western Canada Prospects for 2018 at Ag in Motion this week.