The Government of Saskatchewan detailed a trio of preliminary revenue impact scenarios Friday afternoon regarding the potential for how heavily the province could be hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

"We're as well-positioned as any province to meet this challenge. Still, the economic impact and the impact on the province's finances will be massive this year," said Finance Minister, Donna Harpauer. "While it is still too soon to know exactly how massive that impact will be, I thought it was important to release some different scenarios showing a range of how significant the impact might be, depending on how long the economic restrictions remain in effect."

The reason we've developed these three scenarios is because there is, as mentioned, still a lot of uncertainty," Harpauer added.

The most favourable of yesterday's three preliminary scenarios poses a $1.3-billion decrease in revenue, along with the following marks for 2020:

  • 4.1 percent decrease in Real GDP,
  • 9.3 percent decrease in Nominal GDP,
  • 8.2 percent increase in Unemployment Rate,
  • 12.5 percent decrease in Retail Sales,
  • decrease of 12,900 in Employment Growth.

The scenario also would call for a 'substantial recovery by June 2020'.

The second scenario is pegged with an $2.2-billion drop in revenue, and the following changes in 2020 as well:

  • 6.3 percent decrease in Real GDP,
  • 12.8 percent decrease in Nominal GDP,
  • 8.6 percent increase in Unemployment Rate,
  • 18.8 percent decrease in Retail Sales,
  • decrease of 15,800 in Employment Growth.

Scenario 2 also notes a 'substantial recovery by September 2020'.

Lastly, the hardest hitting of the three possibilities calls for a $3.3-billion revenue loss and a steepened rise in the numbers for 2020:

  • 14.9 percent decrease in Real GDP,
  • 20.4 percent decrease in Nominal GDP,
  • 10.5 percent increase in Unemployment Rate,
  • 33.3 percent decrease in Retail Sales,
  • decrease of 27,200 jobs in Employment Growth.

There also would be a 'substantial recovery by January 2021' in the third scenario.

Minister Harpauer reiterated that they aren't predictions of what's to come, more projections of what the province could ultimately be faced with.

"It is still incredibly difficult to forecast revenue with any degree of certainty. The duration and severity of the current economic environment, along with consumer and business behaviour after the crisis, will ultimately determine how large of a revenue decline we will face. On top of this, oil prices continue to come under pressure due to global supply and demand imbalances," she said.

The provincial government notes that, at this time, they're managing spending within the amounts listed in their initial budget estimates unveiled March 18.

"Our government has committed to provide all financial resources necessary to address the COVID-19 pandemic. This will likely result in spending increases beyond the amounts allocated in the 2020-21 finance estimates," said Harpauer. "Estimates will also be increased due to programs we have announced such as the Saskatchewan Small Business Recovery Program, and the Self-Isolation Support Program. There may be further spending increases dependent on federal relief decisions."

"Saskatchewan was on track for a surplus in the 2019-20, and 2020-21 prior to COVID-19 pandemic and oil price collapse," Harpauer added to close her Friday afternoon statement.

"The 2020-21 deficit is not a structural deficit - it is a pandemic deficit - and we will manage through it. We will develop a fiscal plan to bring our budget back to balance over time, because we have the strength and the foundation here in Saskatchewan to do it."